A commenter on Scoble’s site asks an interesting question:
I’ve got a 4 year old PC running (barely) XP. My graphics card is a 64MB card, it’s an AMD duron 850, 256MB of RAM. It runs XP fine now, why should I upgrade it to Vista and won’t my upgrade costs be a little more than $10-20?
He points to a couple of PCs sold to the masses at Wal-Mart and wonders whether Windows Vista will run on those PCs. One is a $548 notebook with a 1.2GHz AMD processor, in the clearance section. The other is a 3GHz Celeron-powered Compaq Presario.
I see no reason why Windows Vista wouldn’t run on both of those machines, after a memory upgrade. The integrated graphics might mean that some of the whizzy 3D graphics would be missing, but all of the features of Windows Vista would work, and I suspect it would be pretty speedy.
He continues:
That’s what Microsoft has to overcome. It’s not that people have to fork over $20 to upgrade, it’s that a lot of them have to buy an whole new computer to run Vista. My parents have a computer purchased in the last 3 years, yet I can’t get them to fork over $100 to get XP Home on their PC because it runs fine with Windows Me for what they want to do. I’ve seen OS X running on blueberry clamshell iBooks and iMacs for cryin’ out loud. Not fast, but as fast as my XP install at home. Why doesn’t Microsoft release an OS that scales backwards as well as forward?
My experience with Windows upgrades through the years is that any PC built within two years of the launch date will deliver a pretty decent experience, especially if you’re willing to upgrade RAM. A PC that’s three years old should run acceptably, especially if you don’t demand a lot from it. Anything older than that is a science project, not a serious technology investment. Windows Vista is more graphically intensive than any previous Windows version, so the graphics subsystem will be more of an issue for mainstream users than it has been in the past, but not an insurmountable one.
I think a lot of this concern is a red herring, though. Most people who will buy a bargain-basement PC from Wal-Mart are not the sort who are going to be salivating for a Windows Vista upgrade. If they were that concerned with flashy new technology, they’d spend a couple hundred dollars more and get a system that will deliver some of that flash right now.
In the past five years, I’ve helped dozens of people buy new PCs. With virtually no exceptions, they upgraded to Windows with the purchase of a new PC. When you work out the economics of upgrading (extra RAM, bigger hard drive, retail/upgrade version of Windows), the cost of a whole new PC is usually not that much more than the upgrade. And that’s the way the market has worked for 10+ years. For every copy of Windows sold in a shrink-wrapped box, there are 10 copies sold pre-loaded on a new PC.
To return to the commenter’s original question… Why should he upgrade his four-year-old PC (which will be five years old next year when Windows Vista is released)? He shouldn’t. It makes no sense. If it’s performing acceptably for the tasks he performs, there’s no need to upgrade. If it’s falling short, four or five years is a reasonable life for any piece of technological equipment, and the arrival of Windows Vista would be a good reason to replace it.