Four or five years ago, as I was working on an update to Windows XP Inside Out, I remember getting into a brief back-and-forth with a colleague over how to describe the price of USB flash drives. I wanted to say that devices of a specific size were available for “reasonable” prices, and my colleague contended that every reader’s circumstances were different, and that “reasonable” meant different things to different people. We wound up calling them “inexpensive.”
OK, here’s the punch line. We were talking about drives that look positively puny now: 64MB drives going for around $50. And we were both impressed a year or so later to discover that some 1GB flash drives (slow, bulky, with nonstandard designs) were finally available for under $100. I still have a handful of those old, small drives hanging around. They’re useful for moving drivers and downloads between machines, but that’s about it.
Roughly a year ago, I picked up some high-performance 1GB drives for $24, which I called a “remarkably low price” back in January. This week, I’ve seen multiple ads offering flash drives with the ReadyBoost logo (meaning they had passed a meaningful speed test): $18 for 2GB , $30 for 4GB, and roughly $50 for 8GB. The 4GB and 8GB sizes are big enough to hold enough entertainment for a cross-country flight: a movie or two, a week’s worth of recorded TV programs, or 100 albums. They’re also considerably easier to use (and more importantly, to reuse) than blank DVD media, which offers the same storage at roughly 1% of the price.
Given the current price-performance curve, I expect to see inexpensive 128GB flash drives within the next five years. At that price, I should be able to store 1000 albums or a dozen high-definition movies on a thumb drive or a hybrid drive I can plug into a notebook. As a consumer, I think that’s pretty cool. If I were an entertainment industry executive, I’d be much more concerned. Either way, it sure does change the definition of “portable.”