It’s funny because it might be true

The Onion has published its 300th anniversary special edition. Want to know what’s going to be in the news in 2056? Check it out. Hilarious, as in “The guy in the next cubicle will want to know what’s so funny and you won’t be able to tell him.” Rich with detail, too. Be sure to follow the links. Apparently, 50 years from now, iPods will be allowed to vote, Abraham Lincoln’s DNA will be for sale over the counter, a fat Britney Spears will be on postage stamps, and daytime TV will be worse than ever.

Thanks to NewMexiKen for the pointer.

 

PVRs won’t hit the mainstream for years

If you own a TiVo, or a Media Center PC, or a PVR from your cable company, you’re part of an elite. A new research report from Accenture says that the percentage of U.S. homes with personal video recorders will increase by 500% in the next four years, but even in 2009 more than half of U.S. homes still won’t have the equipment to record, pause, or time-shift TV. This summary is at Smartmoney.com:

Accenture’s research estimates that around 40% of U.S. homes will have personal video recorders, or PVRs, by 2009. The technology in PVRs allows viewers to store and record television programs on a set-top box, skipping through advertising segments easily.

About 8% of U.S. homes now have PVR technology, resulting in around 2% of ads being skipped.

The author of the report, media and entertainment partner Theresa Wise, calculates that up to 10% of ads could be skipped by 2009, with as much as $6 billion lost.

What I find fascinating about this story is the overwhelming emphasis on advertising, with the subtext that the advertising industry needs to find a way to prevent us ungrateful consumers from skipping their ads. It always reminds me of this scene from A Clockwork Orange:

Clockwork_orange

Of course, the reporter does mention that there are other reasons besides PVRs for the projections that growth in TV ad revenues will shrink:

A combination of fragmenting television audiences, loss of market share by the big networks to cable channels, and the growth of the personal video recorder, will all contribute to a slowing in the rate of growth of the advertising industry.

They forgot to mention the little fact that a lot of people feel besieged with advertising that has no respect for us as viewers and insults our intelligence, and the PVR is just one way to route around it.

Anyway, the rate of penetration for PVRs in U.S. homes today is about the same as cable TV had in 1980. In other words, there’s lots of room for growth if greedy corporations don’t try to strangle the market.

Looking for a copy of Windows XP Inside Out?

I’ve got a small number of signed copies of Windows XP Inside Out, Deluxe Second Edition that I want to pass along to readers of this site. I can’t post the price here, but suffice to say it’s the absolute best deal you’ll ever see on this title. If you’re interested, send a note to books@bott.com. First come, first served, and preference goes to anyone who’s ever posted a comment on this site.

Tip of the day: Customize your System Restore settings

System Restore is one of the most important – and most misunderstood – features in Windows XP. Used properly, it can save you hours of painful reconfiguration if you inadvertently install a bad driver or program. If you don’t understand its inner workings, you’re at a serious disadvantage. Carl Siechert, Craig Stinson, and I spent a lot of time delving into this feature in Windows XP Inside Out, Second Edition and Windows XP Inside Out Deluxe, Second Edition. In Chapter 2, “Installing and Configuring Windows XP,” we explain how you can customize System Restore to match your preferences. In “Recovering After a Computer Crash” (Chapter 39 in the Deluxe Edition, Chapter 32 in the regular edition), we explain how this feature works and how to use it properly.

System Restore settings and preferences are stored in the registry. Most of the values found here can be adjusted safely and easily using the System Restore tab of the System Properties dialog box. By default, System Restore is configured to allow its files to occupy up to 12 percent of available disk space on every drive. On a 60 GB drive, that adds up to more than 7 GB of storage space. That’s excessive. To rein in space usage for a specific drive, open Control Panel, double-click the System icon (it’s in the Performance and Maintenance category if you’re set up to use the Category view of Control Panel), and click the System Restore tab.

From the list of available drives, click the drive letter that corresponds to the drive on which Windows is installed. (Normally, this is C:) Then click Settings to open the dialog box shown here.

Sys_restore_settings

Move the slider control to the left until you reach a size you’re happy with. A value of around 1 GB should be sufficient for most people.

A few settings, however, can only be adjusted by manually editing the values stored in the registry – specifically, in this key:

HKLM\SOFTWARE\Microsoft\WindowsNT\
CurrentVersion\SystemRestore

If you are an experienced Windows user and you’re comfortable working with the registry, you can change the interval at which restore points are automatically created. All the standard warnings apply here: Editing the registry is dangerous. You can screw up your system and even render it unable to start. If you do, you’re on your own. Just so we’re clear…

Normally, System Restore automatically creates restore points every 24 hours. To adjust this interval, change the value RPGlobalInterval from its default setting of 86,400 seconds (24 hours). Cut this figure in half, to 43,200, if you want to save restore points twice a day; triple it, to 259,200, if you want restore points created every three days.

By default, System Restore deletes restore points after 90 days. To adjust this interval, change the value RPLifeInterval from its default setting of 7,776,000 seconds (90 days). A value of 2,592,000 seconds (30 days) should be sufficient.

No tips next week

The Tip of the Day feature takes next week off. Judy and I will be in Santa Fe, New Mexico, all week, scouting the next stop on our never-ending tour of the United States. Yeah, we’re ready to relocate to a place with four real seasons.

New Mexican bloggers are invited to weigh in with comments and suggestions.

The importance of photo sharing sites to Media Center

Thomas Hawk posted some excellent comments to a recent post here and then turned those comments into a post on his own blog. He’s absolutely, 100% right. Digital photography is a killer feature that is getting people excited about PCs again. Managing photos, digitally manipulating them, turning them into slide shows, printing… These are activities that people of all ages and all levels of computer expertise can relate to. Thomas has a great suggestion for Microsoft:

Yahoo! got Flickr on the cheap. Microsoft should be developing something like this right now in order to compete in the future. They also have a natural tie in with Media Center. If Microsoft tied in an online photo sharing service with my picture slide shows you would have instant built in content on a PC. These powerful slide shows would add to the wow factor of the product.

Right! Most people think of Media Center and they think of its TiVo-like features. But the ability to play digital music, tune in Internet radio stations, listen to podcasts, and make easy slide shows out of digital photos are equally important. When I show off my Media Center setup for friends, photo slide shows always get the biggest wow. If you just got back from vacation, do you really want to drag everyone into the den to see the photos from your trip? Wouldn’t you rather show them off in the living room on your big-screen TV?

Microsoft, are you listening?

(Oh, and be sure to follow the links in Thomas’s post, especially this collection of top-rated photos at Flickr. His photography is technically first-rate, and he also has an artist’s eye for composing and framing shots. I wish I had his talent!)

Tip of the day: Cope with uninstall problems

If a Windows program is giving you problems, one common troubleshooting tactic is to uninstall it, using the Add or Remove Programs option in Control Panel. What should you do if the pesky program isn’t in the list of installed programs? Although it sounds paradoxical, sometimes the best solution is to reinstall the program. After completing the program setup, check the Add or Remove Programs option again; you may discover that now you can uninstall it.

Thomas Hawk wants his HDTV, now!

Thomas Hawk is betting that Chris Lanier is right and I’m wrong in our predictions of when CableCARD HDTV support will arrive in Windows Media Center PCs. (Chris says in the Longhorn timeframe, late 2006, I say a lot sooner.)

In separate comments to my post and to Thomas’s post, Chris says he doesn’t have any inside information, and like me he’s speculating based on publicly available information. Meanwhile, Thomas says Microsoft needs to stop kowtowing to Hollywood:

Microsoft walks a fine line trying to negotiate with it’s Hollywood customers and it’s Media Center customers. It’s a shame because Microsoft certainly has the power, legal prowess and money to tell Hollywood to pound salt — they just have a little more business savvy than this and we will all probably just have to sit tight until the Titans of Media figure it all out.

Microsoft is not waiting for approval from the Forces of Darkness in Hollywood. All of the infrastructure is already in Windows XP Media Center Edition 2005 to record and play back HDTV right now. With an over-the-air antenna, you can get many hours of high-definition programming already. The only missing piece – and it’s a really big piece – is a CableLabs-certified device that can plug into the PC to bring in HD programming that is only available over a wire. Those devices can be added to the Hardware Compatibility List as soon as they’re available, which may be before or after the fall update for Media Center (probably after). Drivers for those devices get certified by the Windows Hardware Quality Lab. Outside beta testers don’t need to use external hardware; all of that testing can be done internally, and in fact confidentiality terms in the license agreement with CableLabs probably make it impossible for any third-party tester to get their hands on one of these devices until they’ve been given the CableLabs stamp of approval.

As for the Media Center Update this fall, Thomas says, “Yawn”:

Give me HDTV. Give me Flickr. Give me instant access to my music without having to wait 5 minutes. Give me a PVR and a guide for radio. Etc. etc. and I’ll be thrilled.

  • HDTV? It’s already in Windows Media Center. The piece you’re waiting for is the hardware, and that has nothing to do with an OS release.
  • Flickr support? I’m amazed that a third party hasn’t written a Flickr add-in yet. All the hooks are in the operating system already and it should be simple. I don’t really expect Microsoft to build in support for a service that’s owned by Yahoo.
  • A fix to the problem of slow music libraries? That’s not Media Center, that’s Windows Media Player. As Matt Goyer said last December in a comment to Thomas: “The problem Thomas is experiencing is a problem with the interaction between WMP and MCE. It is being addressed.” Wouldn’t it be nice if that fix made it into this update, so that we don’t have to wait for the rumored beta of WMP 11 in November?
  • A PVR and a guide for radio? As someone said, “Yawn.” I barely listen to radio anymore. with the exception of NPR, and time-shifted podcast-like NPR programming is already available on Media Center. XM Radio is supported in Media Center too.

Anyway, for Thomas (and for Chris and for me and for lots of other people), HDTV over cable is the #1 item on the wish list. Get that hardware certified and you’re not yawning about Media Center anymore!

When will HDTV over cable come to Media Center?

When will you be able to plug a digital cable into your PC and record HDTV signals? It might be a lot sooner than you think. Maybe before the end of this year.

I realize that’s not the current conventional wisdom. Last month, Chris Lanier speculated that Windows-based Media Center PCs wouldn’t support high-definition TV over cable until Media Center Longhorn Edition arrives at the end of 2006. His remarks got picked up by Thomas Hawk, by Engadget, and by Ernest Miller at Corante, to name just a few. Chris sees Hollywood circling the wagons and refusing to allow Microsoft access to their encrypted signals:

Part of the reason Media Center doesn’t support anything more than OTA is mainly because of the rights management issues. Sure, the hardware support isn’t currently shipped, but I don’t see that as the big holdup. Media Center is not the “closed box” that Hollywood [wants] it to be. The only reason we can purchase a TiVo or other CE device that will record premium content is because it appears to the industry as a “closed box”. It’s too easy for them to say that Media Center is highly contributing to piracy of TV and films on the Internet because of the PC’s open architecture. Microsoft must make changes to Media Center, and the underlying Operating System that is Windows XP, to be a “closed box” when it comes to recording and viewing digital content.The solution to this problem of the “closed box” is already being developed, but I don’t think it’s going to fall into place until the Longhorn timeframe.

Interesting theory, but flawed, in my opinion. I will quibble with the assertion that “we can purchase a TiVo or other CE device that will record premium content … because it appears to the industry as a ‘closed box.'” TiVos are eminently hackable, as are Replay TV boxes and MythTV. In fact, many, many people (including me) have opened those boxes and modified them. So far there is no DVR device from any third-party company that accepts a CableCARD and records an HDTV signal. [This statement is incorrect. See update at end of item.] The only devices that can do this are true closed boxes – DVRs specifically designed for cable companies to give to their subscribers, like the Scientific Atlanta 8300HD, which I’ve written about many times.

Then, earlier this week, Chris passed along this news item from Multichannel News:

Cable Television Laboratories Inc. is expected to announce that Microsoft Corp. will build a new class of “unidirectional” devices, meaning PCs that can display secure video programming from cable operators.

Copy protection on incoming content could be applied using Windows digital-rights management on a secure connector, but other methods of DRM are not excluded.

To date, Samsung Electro-Mechanics Co. Ltd., Panasonic Consumer Electronics, LG Electronics Inc. and Digeo Inc. have signed the “CHILA” agreement, which stands for “Cable Host Interface Licensing Agreement.”

Chris thinks this proves that the devices won’t be ready until Longhorn. I think it suggests that these devices could be available sooner than anyone thinks.

The Multichannel News article got one detail wrong. The agreement Microsoft signed is the CableCARD-Host Interface Licensing Agreement. (It’s easier to Google when you get the terms just right.) The missing piece in the HDTV-over-cable-to-PC puzzle is the hardware that receives the signal and sends it along to a consumer device. Any device designed to decode a digital cable signal via CableCARD must be certified to meet OpenCable specifications established by the cable industry. Those specifications define compatibility, quality, and robustness – which is a code word for security and, in the present example, means “resisting attempts to modify CableCARDs or Host Devices to defeat the functions of the OpenCable Specifications or the Compliance Rules.” (If you want to geek out, go read the CableCARD Copy Protection System Interface Specification, the Multi-Stream CableCARD Copy Protection System Interface, and the OpenCable™ Host Device 2.0 Core Functional Requirements, paying particular attention to Section 4.6 of that last document, which defines the HD Copy Control specifications.)

CableLabs is currently preparing for a wave of testing of these “unidirectional digital cable products,” or UDCPs. There’s a good overview of the process here. You can see the hardware test schedule for 2005 at the CableLabs site, in a PDF document that lists August 5 as the TestWave end date for UDCPs and August 19 as the end date for OpenCable products. What’s involved in the testing? See for yourself in this Getting Started document (PDF), which is aimed at manufacturers of devices. These devices use encryption (manufacturers have to order 10,000 certificates at a time, with each device having a unique certificate, at a cost of 7 cents apiece). If the production devices submitted for testing pass the OpenCable tests, they get certified within five days and the manufacturer can begin production.

In the past, PC-based devices have failed the robustness test. But I suspect that this time around, Microsoft is pushing aggressively to have its encryption and rights-management certified. The OpenCable specs allow for submission of New Digital Outputs and Content Protection Technologies. The Multichannel News article says Cable Labs is going to announce the approval of “PCs that can display secure video programming” from Microsoft. The developer’s checklist for this fall’s update to Windows XP Media Center Edition refers to “content protection” and “platform security.” When I add that all up, it seems like a pretty good story.

Is it a coincidence that the OpenCable testing ends in August and the Media Center update is also due in August? Hmmm. If Microsoft can push their Media Center update and associated hardware through the certification process, we could see HDTV CableCARD devices, and maybe even full systems like Shuttle’s CableCARD-ready Pentium M design, up to a year sooner than Longhorn. If they fail, well … wait till Longhorn.

Update: In the comments, Bosteve points out that the Sony DHG-HDD series has been on sale at retail for a few months. There are two models, one with a 250GB drive and another with a 500GB drive. One tuner only. Curiously, this device is listed as “self-verified” rather than “certified” on the CableLabs list. Although they were announced in October 2004, I can’t tell when they actually went on sale. It appears to be relatively recently. Is anyone out there using one of these boxes?

Tip of the day: Back up files by sending them to a CD

These days, virtually every PC has a writable CD drive. Your drive probably came with software that allows you to create audio CDs and perform specialized functions. If you use Windows XP, you don’t need third-party software to write files to a disk in your CD-R or CD-RW drive. Use this capability to perform simple backup tasks:

  1. Right-click a file or folder, or a selection of files or folders, that you want to copy to a CD.
  2. From the shortcut menu, choose Send To, CD Drive.
  3. Repeat these steps for all of the items that you want to copy.

When you’re ready to create your backup CD, insert a blank CD into the drive (or a CD-RW disk that you’re ready to erase and overwrite). Open your CD drive in My Computer and click Write these files to CD in the task pane, or choose File, Write these files to CD.

Write_to_cd

As an alternative to using the Send To command, you can drag files into the Windows Explorer folder for your CD drive. You can drop files on the CD drive icon, or on a shortcut to that icon. Or you can use the Copy and Paste commands. When you copy files and folders into the CD drive’s folder, by whatever means, Windows prepares them for transfer to a writable CD. The CD folder becomes, in effect, a staging area for the eventual CD burn. One word of caution: You’re limited to the contents of one CD (650-702 MB). If you put too many files in this temporary folder, you’ll get an error message when you try to burn a CD, and you’ll have to clear out some files before continuing.