Thomas Hawk is betting that Chris Lanier is right and I’m wrong in our predictions of when CableCARD HDTV support will arrive in Windows Media Center PCs. (Chris says in the Longhorn timeframe, late 2006, I say a lot sooner.)
In separate comments to my post and to Thomas’s post, Chris says he doesn’t have any inside information, and like me he’s speculating based on publicly available information. Meanwhile, Thomas says Microsoft needs to stop kowtowing to Hollywood:
Microsoft walks a fine line trying to negotiate with it’s Hollywood customers and it’s Media Center customers. It’s a shame because Microsoft certainly has the power, legal prowess and money to tell Hollywood to pound salt — they just have a little more business savvy than this and we will all probably just have to sit tight until the Titans of Media figure it all out.
Microsoft is not waiting for approval from the Forces of Darkness in Hollywood. All of the infrastructure is already in Windows XP Media Center Edition 2005 to record and play back HDTV right now. With an over-the-air antenna, you can get many hours of high-definition programming already. The only missing piece – and it’s a really big piece – is a CableLabs-certified device that can plug into the PC to bring in HD programming that is only available over a wire. Those devices can be added to the Hardware Compatibility List as soon as they’re available, which may be before or after the fall update for Media Center (probably after). Drivers for those devices get certified by the Windows Hardware Quality Lab. Outside beta testers don’t need to use external hardware; all of that testing can be done internally, and in fact confidentiality terms in the license agreement with CableLabs probably make it impossible for any third-party tester to get their hands on one of these devices until they’ve been given the CableLabs stamp of approval.
As for the Media Center Update this fall, Thomas says, “Yawn”:
Give me HDTV. Give me Flickr. Give me instant access to my music without having to wait 5 minutes. Give me a PVR and a guide for radio. Etc. etc. and I’ll be thrilled.
-
HDTV? It’s already in Windows Media Center. The piece you’re waiting for is the hardware, and that has nothing to do with an OS release.
-
Flickr support? I’m amazed that a third party hasn’t written a Flickr add-in yet. All the hooks are in the operating system already and it should be simple. I don’t really expect Microsoft to build in support for a service that’s owned by Yahoo.
-
A fix to the problem of slow music libraries? That’s not Media Center, that’s Windows Media Player. As Matt Goyer said last December in a comment to Thomas: “The problem Thomas is experiencing is a problem with the interaction between WMP and MCE. It is being addressed.” Wouldn’t it be nice if that fix made it into this update, so that we don’t have to wait for the rumored beta of WMP 11 in November?
-
A PVR and a guide for radio? As someone said, “Yawn.” I barely listen to radio anymore. with the exception of NPR, and time-shifted podcast-like NPR programming is already available on Media Center. XM Radio is supported in Media Center too.
Anyway, for Thomas (and for Chris and for me and for lots of other people), HDTV over cable is the #1 item on the wish list. Get that hardware certified and you’re not yawning about Media Center anymore!
Ed Bott 
I definitely will not be yawning when we get cable HDTV support. I bitch a lot. All fair points, still it’s hard for me to get excited about the update but like a lot of people everyone has there own priority list.
Flickr is owned by Yahoo! yes, but it is also something that recently has been occupying several hours a day of my time. Now THAT is a successful product. I can’t see Microsoft developing a plug in, that’s what outside developers are for and the SDK is available to all. I know that at least one Flickr plug in is in the development stage as we speak.
Of course Microsoft could also always choose to create their own version of Flickr if they wanted to as well. I did a post for the road map a while back here.
One of the powerful aspects of owning a top photo sharing site is the possibility to own image search in the future. Microsoft, Google, Ask Jeeves and Yahoo! all have extremely mediocre image search.
Search for a photo of the Golden Gate Bridge on Google image search and see what you get — super mediocre images of a great photographic subject. By owning an online photo sharing site Microsoft could use user online ranking data to prioritize image search and make MSN image search the clear leader. Although image search is a much smaller subset than text search it would be a powerful toehold in the Google dominated world.
Although I have not seen this type of thing appear at Yahoo! yet (and with the strong grass roots community spirit at Flickr you’d probably need user buy in and even a possible opt in approach) if they are smart they would be working on this too. Yahoo! has a huge leg up owning Flickr.
If you want to see the type of amazing photography I’m talking about check out my current favorite’s list at Flickr.
If these images showed up as top image searches for their respective search categories no one would use any other image search service.
Yahoo! got Flickr on the cheap. Microsoft should be developing something like this right now in order to compete in the future. They also have a natural tie in with Media Center. If Microsoft tied in an online photo sharing service with my picture slide shows you would have instant built in content on a PC. These powerful slide shows would add to the wow factor of the product.
It works on a lot of different levels.
[Edited to make links clickable. – EB]
For a good example of what I’m talking about check out the search term “bridesmaids”
Now how much more excited would you be if your image search returned this? (289 people call this a favorite at Flickr by the way)
vs.
Google’s search for the term “bridesmaids” here
By using user favorite rankings and ratings in image search you could create a much more powerful user experience. Google does include some Flickr results in their image searches but they lack the proprietary data that Yahoo! now has for potentially determining which ones are ranked high and ought to be on the first page of search.
Microsoft should be a player in this game as well. Instead of fantastic shots like the Flickr one above you get this.
In my opinion slightly better than Google actually but still a far cry from what it could be with user ranking data.
At present Yahoo!’s search is worse than both Google’s and MSN but I suspect that Flickr and rankings might get mixed in at some point to create a much better user experience.
Link
[Edited to make links clickable. – EB]