Is the network DVR a good idea?

Mediaweek has a fascinating story on the possibility that cable companies could offer unlimited DVR capacity from a central location:

A report issued last week by Magna Global predicts that if network DVRs become a reality, DVR usage could skyrocket. Unlike set-top DVRs, which are already offered by several cable operators, a network DVR records virtually all programming on a central server in the cable system’s “headend.”

Theoretically, anybody who subscribes to digital cable could record whatever they wanted, without having to schedule an appointment with the cable guy or install a TiVo box.

According to Magna, network DVRs, if deployed this year, “would immediately make time-shifting technology available to 40 [percent] to 50 percent of a cable operator’s subscribers…significantly impacting how video content is consumed.” Magna Global’s director of industry analysis, Brian Wieser, who authored the report, said, “The possibility could be here a lot sooner than people think.”

In theory, this is a fascinating idea. Why should 10,000 users record Lost or Desperate Housewives on their individual hard drives when the service provider (cable or satellite) could store a single copy and serve it on demand? That would, again in theory, allow the service provider to preserve all the other content being broadcast at the same time as those hit programs, making it available for anyone to watch on demand.

In practice, I fear that some or all of the following would happen:

• Cable companies would start charging a premium for certain types of content.
• Cable companies would ignore unpopular programs, no matter how interesting, and focus only on the top 100, making the selection of programming even less diverse and more bland.
• A significant minority of content providers (yes, I’m looking at you, HBO) would object and file lawsuits to block the service completely.
• Someone would figure out a way to insert ads into the content (or in a bumper that plays before the program) that could not be skipped.
• The programs delivered to the customer would be “protected” with DRM, making it impossible to reuse them even in ways that have been traditionally acceptable under the fair use doctrine.

I’m not a Comcast subscriber, so I don’t know enough about the service, but apparently Comcast’s On Demand feature already offers at least some of this functionality.

(Via Lost Remote)