Over at PaidContent.org, Jeremy Allaire sent in five predictions for 2005. This was the most interesting one, in my opinion:
— Microsoft Media Center 2005 Will Be a Hit. Third times a charm, and Microsoft now has a very strong product in the market. The PC industry is putting real weight behind it as it allows them to have a “whole product” sale with their emerging base of LCD and Plasma TV’s (higher margin), and lets them dabble in the content business (a breath of fresh air from the cut-throat PC world); the CE industry is shipping dozens of connectors, extenders, and portable devices that support it, and the base of content companies getting behind the platform is impressive. Best of all, the product is really great, and the tens of millions of consumers who go out ot buy new PCs will be tempted by the marginal incremental cost to get the promise of whole house convergnece on the cheap. Yes, there are problems and issues with the product, but the list is short and Microsoft will nail them down before the end of the year. This will not be a product that is “pushed”, but one that is pulled as consumer word-of-mouth helps fuel sales.
I think he’s right. I’ve read a lot about the cutthroat competition between TiVo, the cable companies, satellite providers, and Microsoft (not to mention Apple and Linux-based PC solutions). But the salient fact is that this market is going to grow explosively, which means that even a company that loses market share could still find itself growing.
Should be an interesting year.
Ed Bott 