Peter Rysavy at Tabula PC has posted a long essay called Tablet troubles and stumbles – discussed and rebuked. As the title suggests, it synthesizes several recent blog entries by Mary Jo Foley and Robert Scoble that do the point/counterpoint dance about the viability of the Tablet PC.
Peter says: “Mary Jo Foley penned a great article about the troubles of the tablet. It’s a really good read, and it covers all those obvious problems that are apparent these days. Like Lonestar being delayed due to SP2 being pushed back, the confusion and disappointments stemming from the many no-shows in the retail and campus demo tours, the very poor retail marketing, and the recent renaming of the updated OS, which really nobody seems to understand. You know, all those things that the common person sees and hears out there in the real world. The ones that make him or her not get a tablet.”
I share Peter’s frustration to a degree, but I think the problem has a different cause than just poor marketing on Microsoft’s part. The Tablet PC is one of those products that you can describe until you’re blue in the face, but people don’t get it until they try it. And the average student or business person simply doesn’t get to try a Tablet PC. The floor models at your local Best Buy, if they even have one, are bolted to the shelf. Even if you can get your hands on one for a few minutes, you can’t really appreciate its utility until you start using it day in and day out. And the only people who get to do that are those who have the money and the daring to take a flyer on a new technology. In other words, the bleeding edge.
I think the build-up of momentum for the Tablet PC is going to take another couple years. I certainly don’t see it going away. Lonestar (Service Pack 2) will help a lot, because it really does improve the tablet experience dramatically. But prices have to come down enough for more people to take a gamble on this technology and allow their friends and associates to see it in everyday use. When the students on either side of you are using a tablet every day for a whole semester, it makes it easier to see why it works.
I believe Microsoft is in this for the long haul. The adoption curve will not be steep but gradual. For Peter and the others who are using the technology now, enjoy the feeling of being out in front.
Ed Bott 
“I believe Microsoft is in this for the long haul.”
I agree with you, but I can understand why some folks are gunshy. Microsoft has a history of dropping products for reasons that don’t always make sense to someone who last month plunked down good money for a product that this month isn’t supported.
This week, Microsoft discontinued their relatively new and growing line of WiFi products; driver support and upgrades will probably cease. Before that, there was the Smart Display. (This was the product that came out about the same time as the original Tablet PC; it was an overpriced wireless tablet that relied upon a PC base station–sort of a Tablet PC without the brains.) Going back a little further, we have Sidewinder game controllers, which were still being sold long after MS stopped writing drivers for current operating systems. Same thing happened to the Microsoft Cordless Phone System, which lost 90% of its cool features the moment you upgraded past Windows 98.
I think Microsoft is in this (Tablet PC) for the long haul. But a lot of folks are going to wait a few years to find out for sure.